Australian Bond Exchange

ABE Weekly: Global Corporate Bond Market Supply Reopens with Record Issuance and Emergency Oil Flood

Australian Bond Exchange Weekly Update

13th Mar 2026

ABE Weekly: US Business Conditions decline sharply & the ECB decreases rates

Market Insights


Key Points

  • Australia:
    The RBA increased cash rates by 0.25% to 3.85% p.a. at its February meeting – the first hike since 2023. January CPI increased by 3.80% p.a., and the Trimmed Mean was 3.4% p.a.
  • United States:
    The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% p.a. at its January 2026 meeting, signalling a pause in the easing cycle amid mixed economic data and inflation that remains above target. The latest U.S. CPI inflation rate was 2.4% (YoY) as of February 2026.
  • United Kingdom:
    The Bank of England held Bank Rate steady at 3.75% p.a. in early February 2026. CPI declined to 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2026, down from 3.4% in December 2025.
  • Eurozone:
    The European Central Bank kept its key deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% p.a., and recent data show inflation in the euro area slowing to around 1.7% (YoY), down from 2.0% in December.

 

 

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U.S. CPI increasing by 2.4% for the twelve months to February

Consumer Prices rose by 2.4% in the twelve months to February, in line with the preceding month and economists’ forecasts. The key inflation gauge rose by 0.3% (MoM), compared with 0.2% (MoM) in January, in line with expectations, Labor Department figures showed on Wednesday. Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the so-called “core” CPI came in at 2.5%(YoY), equalling January’s rate and analysts’ predictions. More expensive airfares and window and floor coverings were offset by lower prices in often tariff-exposed items like toys and footwear. Of course, these numbers largely cover a period that does not include the Iran conflict, which began with the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran in late February. It remains to be seen what impact the spike in energy prices will have on the consumption and confidence of the all-important American consumer.

Emergency Oil Flood: IEA Releases Record 400M Barrels

The International Energy Agency announced the largest coordinated release of strategic oil reserves in its history, making about 400 million barrels available from emergency stockpiles held by its 32 member countries. The move is intended to stabilize global oil markets and ease price spikes following severe supply disruptions linked to the escalating conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The scale of the release is unprecedented for the agency. It more than doubles the previous largest coordinated release of about 182 million barrels in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Global Corporate Bond Market Supply reopens with record issuance

Tuesday night was a record for global corporate bond issuance, with $65.8bn printed. This was followed by $41.7bn of supply the following night, putting this week on track as the 3rd busiest on record.

Why is this important: This shows that the markets are functioning again and that corporate funding behaviour, investor demand for credit, and the overall health and liquidity of the bond market are back on track. This provides a real-time test of investor demand for credit risk. If the market can absorb more than $100bn of new supply in just a few days, it suggests there is still deep institutional demand from asset managers, pension funds, and insurers.

*Data accurate as at 13.03.2026

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