Australian Bond Exchange Weekly Update
28th November 2025
Key Points
- Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% p.a. at its November meeting. The monthly CPI for October gained 3.8%(YoY). The annual trimmed mean inflation in Australia — a key underlying inflation gauge used by the Reserve Bank of Australia — rose to 3.3 % (YoY)..
- United States: The Federal Reserve cut its target cash rate by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%p.a. September headline inflation was 3.0% (YoY), up from 2.9% in August
- United Kingdom: The Bank of England (BoE) held interest rate steady at 4.00% p.a. at its November meeting. The September inflation stood at 3.8%(YOY).
- Eurozone: The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its deposit rate at 2.0% p.a. Inflation in September increased slightly to 2.2%(YoY) – up from 2.0% in August.
Here are the latest monetary‑policy and inflation figures for key economies:
| Region | Policy Rate | Latest Inflation (YoY) |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | Cash rate 3.60% p.a. (Reserve Bank of Australia, November 2025) | 3.8% p.a. to October 2025 (monthly CPI indicator) |
| United States | Policy range 3.75–4.00% p.a. (Federal Reserve cut 0.25% on 29 October 2025) | 3.0% to September 2025 (CPI) |
| United Kingdom | Bank rate 4.00% (Bank of England) | 3.8% to September 2025 |
| Eurozone | Deposit facility rate 2.00% p.a. (European Central Bank held 11 September 2025) | Headline inflation ~ 2.1% (ECB projected average for 2025) |
Market Insights
- Australia’s October Inflation Surges, Dashing Hopes of Early Rate Cuts
- U.S. Private Credit Defaults Ease to 5.2% in October
- U.S. Producer Prices Rise Modestly, With Little Sign of Broad Tariff Effects
Australia’s October Inflation Surges, Dashing Hopes of Early Rate Cuts
Australia’s October 2025 inflation came in higher than expected. The annual CPI rose to 3.8%, up from 3.6% in September, according to the ABS. Underlying inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, edged up to 3.3%. The main drivers were housing costs, which continued to climb sharply, along with food and recreational spending. Electricity prices surged due to the expiry of earlier energy rebates, contributing significantly to overall goods inflation. For households, the data signals ongoing cost-of-living strain, particularly in housing, food, and energy.
U.S. Private Credit Defaults Ease to 5.2% in October
Fitch Rating’s U.S. Private Credit Default Rate (PCDR) declined to 5.2% for the trailing 12 months (TTM) ending October 2025, down from 5.4% in September. The PCDR comprises two components: the Privately Monitored Rating (PMR) default rate and the Model-based Credit Opinion (MCO) default rate. In October, the PMR default rate fell to 7.7%, Fitch’s lowest published rate of the year for this component. The MCO default rate also edged down slightly to 4.3% from 4.4% in September. Overall, the data indicate modest but continued improvement in private credit performance.
Why is this important: Falling private credit defaults signal improving financial health among borrowers, strengthen confidence in the private credit market, and suggest more stable conditions for investors and the broader economy.
U.S. Producer Prices Rise Modestly, With Little Sign of Broad Tariff Effects
The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in September 2025, matching economists’ consensus. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, “core” PPI rose 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%. Wholesale goods prices increased 0.9%, driven largely by a 3.5% jump in energy prices, while wholesale service-price inflation was essentially flat (final-demand services were unchanged). Wholesale food prices rose 1.1%. Over the past 12 months, headline PPI is up 2.7%, and core PPI (less food, energy, and trade services) is up 2.9%.
Why is this important: The September PPI report shows that producer prices remain relatively contained, and there is no clear evidence in this data that the new tariffs have created broad inflationary pressure so far. However, the PPI alone cannot fully capture the wider impact on companies, and tariff effects may appear in other indicators or over a longer time period.
*Data accurate as at 28.11.2025
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